By Felix Olukayode

Nigeria’s economy reportedly expanded by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.23 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025 and 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The performance was supported by growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors, which expanded by 7.31 per cent and 4.31 per cent, respectively. Agriculture grew by 4.39 per cent, while services, the largest contributor to the economy, expanded by 4.60 per cent and accounted for 56.62 per cent of real GDP. Industry, however, slowed sharply to 3.96 per cent from 7.46 per cent a year earlier. In nominal terms, GDP rose 18.43 per cent to about ₦119.29 trillion, while average crude oil production climbed to 1.72 million barrels per day from 1.68 million bpd a year earlier barrels per day

President Bola Tinubu quickly presented the figures as evidence that his administration’s difficult economic reforms were beginning to deliver results. In a statement issued by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the President said: “In the past three years, we tried to do the hard part by implementing the necessary reforms to stabilise the economy. Now the economy is stabilised, and we have laid the foundation for a prosperous nation.” He added: “The results of the efforts are becoming very clear to all: The Renewed Hope Agenda is working.”

The timing gives Tinubu a valuable political talking point ahead of the 2027 presidential election. A stronger quarterly growth rate allows the administration to point to an independently produced economic indicator rather than relying solely on promises about future prosperity. The President has already linked the figures to what he describes as gains from his reforms, including higher oil production, improved credit ratings, stronger foreign reserves, increased investment and expanded access to student and consumer credit.

But the political significance of the 4.43 per cent growth will ultimately depend on whether Nigerians experience it beyond the statistics. GDP growth does not automatically translate into higher household incomes or lower living costs. The same reform programme that the administration credits with stabilising the economy has also coincided with severe cost-of-living pressures, particularly through the removal of petrol subsidies and the naira’s sharp adjustment. For voters still struggling with food, transport and other everyday expenses, the question is less whether GDP is growing than whether their purchasing power is improving.

Tinubu appears conscious of that gap. He said the government would in the coming weeks pursue cheaper transportation, increased food production and relief measures for vulnerable Nigerians, while continuing programmes such as NELFUND and the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation. “Under our watch, the economy is on the irreversible path to experience even more growth that all homes will feel at the dining table and in their pockets,” he said.

That, ultimately, may be the real test of Tinubu’s economic record before 2027. A 4.43 per cent GDP expansion gives the President a stronger macroeconomic case, but elections are won by voters judging their lived experience. If growth begins translating into cheaper food and transport, stronger purchasing power, more jobs and greater economic security, the GDP figures could become a powerful political asset. If household hardship persists despite the headline growth, opposition parties will have an equally powerful counterargument: the economy may be growing, but Nigerians want to know when they will feel it.

With additional reports from the Vanguard