By Our Correspondent
President Donald Trump’s political authority has suffered a major setback after American voters handed the opposition Democrats control of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections, delivering a stinging rejection of his leadership, trade policies, and handling of the eight-month-old war with Iran. The Democrats’ victory in both the House of Representatives and the Senate ends two years of Republican control and leaves Trump facing a hostile Congress for the final two years of his presidency. The outcome could strengthen the bargaining positions of China, Canada, India, and South Africa in their trade negotiations with Washington, as America’s trading partners increasingly see opportunities to challenge his aggressive tariff policies.
China, Washington’s biggest economic rival, could exploit Trump’s weakened political position to negotiate better terms as the existing U.S.-China trade truce approaches its January expiration. However, a Democratic-controlled Congress could also restrict the concessions Trump is willing to make to Beijing, particularly on technology, semiconductors, and strategic industries. India also stands to benefit as negotiations over a bilateral trade agreement continue, with New Delhi seeking better access for its exports and protection for its farmers. Former Indian trade secretary Anup Wadhawan said Trump’s capacity to impose arbitrary tariffs would face a challenge because he would need congressional approval for some trade actions. Canada, meanwhile, has maintained that the election will not change its negotiating position, although the results could strengthen its resistance to Washington’s demands.
South Africa, which has been targeted by the Trump administration over its domestic and foreign policies, also sees an opportunity to reset relations with Washington. The Trump administration recently announced the withdrawal of South Africa’s preferential access to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), effective January 1, 2027, putting about $1.7 billion in annual exports at risk. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa welcomed the American election outcome, saying it would usher in “a new era in world relations”. He acknowledged the loss of AGOA benefits but insisted that trade relations with the U.S. would continue. The Democratic victory could give Pretoria more room to challenge Washington’s approach, although it does not automatically restore its trade privileges.
The biggest uncertainty, however, concerns the Iran war, which has become a major political liability for Trump. The conflict, triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, has disrupted energy supplies, pushed up fuel prices, and contributed to American voters’ dissatisfaction with his administration. With Democrats controlling Congress from January, Trump will face greater pressure to explain the war, justify military spending, and seek congressional backing for prolonged military operations. The election could therefore encourage him to pursue a negotiated settlement with Tehran. But there is also a danger that, with electoral pressure behind him, he could resort to further military escalation to secure what he considers a decisive victory. Reuters quoted an expert at the Emirates Policy Center, Ebtesam al-Ketbi, as warning that Iran could interpret Trump’s weakened position either as an opportunity for a genuine peace deal or an invitation to renewed escalation.
Beyond Iran, Trump’s foreign policy will face greater congressional scrutiny, particularly over military spending, arms sales, relations with Israel, sanctions, and support for Ukraine. Democrats are also expected to intensify investigations into his administration and challenge policies they consider damaging to American interests.
Nevertheless, the electoral defeat does not strip Trump of his constitutional powers as president or commander-in-chief. He retains considerable authority over diplomacy, military deployments, and certain tariff measures, as well as the power to veto legislation. The next two years could therefore be marked by confrontation between the White House and Congress, greater uncertainty in international relations, and a more cautious approach by countries negotiating with Washington.
For China, India, Canada, and South Africa, Trump’s weakened political standing offers an opening, but not a guarantee of victory at the negotiating table.
U.S. House
- DemocratsMajority reached · Won 240
- Republicans Won 147
Election Results as of November 5, 2026 WAT, provided by the Associated Press