There is palpable fear among the European countries that President Vladimir Putin might cut off all or a large portion of Russian gas flows to Europe in response to still unspecified economic sanctions that the United States and other Western countries have pledged to impose in the event of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But if this happens and thing get really messy, the stand- off at the borders of Ukraine may likely have gross adverse effect on Russia commercially as the world’s energy supplier to the European market, even as observers posit that Europe may find itself in an exceptionally vulnerable position as it is in right now.
It is on record that Russia supplies about one-third of Europe’s natural gas, and its prominence as a supplier has grown as the continent’s domestic output has declined.
Vladimir Putin’s show of force at the Ukraine’s border has become a major cause of concern to the European communities and is beginning to raise questions as to the ability of Russia to continue to remain as their most reliable source of energy supply.
Analysts believe that this thinking will most likely hasten the shift away from fussil fuels to renewable energy, a move which if effected will massively undercut the economy of Russia.
Recently, following the crisis with Ukraine, Russia has put Europe through something of a stress test, squeezing gas flows in an apparent attempt to coerce approval on issues like Nord Stream 2, the $11 billion undersea pipeline connecting Russia to Germany that is awaiting final approval. While there is fear in some parts of Europe that Putin may threaten to cut off gas supply to Europe in a bid to get them on his side against Ukraine, some observers think that Putin would be wary of taking such drastic steps against what are his most important customers. Doing so would put a key source of revenue at risk.
Analysts say that while Europe is hugely dependent on Russian gas, Russia is hugely dependent on the European market and can’t easily substitute for it
Reports have it that Putin may be testing the waters by trying to strike a balance “between being a reliable supplier as he has been to Germany and reminding Europe how dependent they are on Russian gas.”
According to reports by the New York Times, similar logic would be likely to govern Putin’s behavior concerning oil, a more important source of revenue than gas. If Russian oil exports were cut off, consuming nations would expect Saudi Arabia to largely close the gap, but it is worrying that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have come up short on recent pledges to increase output, suggesting that they are close to their ceilings.
However, there is hope that reasons may prevail and the situation will not deteriorate. But whatever, the case may be, the rest of Europe will certainly not want ever again to be caught in this quagmire. That is why efforts are being made to gain their independence with regards to energy supply from Russian. And the only way out is by vigorously pursuing the renewable energy drive.