Since the Russia invasion of Ukraine, the prices of most essentials have spiked beyond the reach of the average person. The prices of oil, gas and wheat have all witnessed an unprecedented increase globally, thereby worsening the already high food prices across the world.
In a developing country like Nigeria where the per capital income is still very low, this war, undoubtedly, has dealt a heavy blow to people’s livelihood. Bread is one of Nigeria’s staples, which since the crisis, has gradually vanished off the menu of most people. This is because, in addition to the surge in prices of oil, gas, and other items, the price of wheat has gone up. Wheat is one of the major ingredients used in the production of bread, and with Russia and Ukraine being the top most producers of wheat, it is not far- fetched to discover why these foods are fast disappearing on our menu list and the dining tables of most Nigerians.
Ukraine and Russia, together, produce about 14 per cent of global wheat production and control about 29 per cent of all wheat exports. These two countries rank among the top exporters of wheat followed by Egypt, Turkey and Bangladesh. Russia remains the second-largest exporter of crude oil in the world and is one of the largest producers of natural gas and clean energy globally.
With the war in Ukraine now in its third week, there is no doubt that this will affect Nigeria and the world’s importation of wheat. When those who are supposed to plant, harvest and ship these products to the places where they are needed are at war; it will be difficult if not almost impossible for countries needing them to access them, thereby causing scarcity and subsequently higher prices.
Sequel to the rise in hostilities between the two countries, the FAO predicted that disruptions to international food markets resulting from the conflict could potentially put pressure on import-reliant countries, especially those already experiencing high levels of food insecurity or grappling with their own food crises.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, the price of a bushel of wheat rose by 5.7 per cent to $9.347 in the recent week, following the escalation of the war.
In view of this development, Nigeria and other import-reliant countries, therefore, have to devise other means of getting wheat or better still begin to look for alternatives to wheat in order to keep their citizens from dying of hunger.
Experts are of the opinion that this leaves Nigeria with two options to either invest massively in critical infrastructure in states where it has competitive and comparative advantage to boost wheat production or look elsewhere away from Russia and Ukraine to import wheat.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated that Nigeria imported N898.2 billion worth of wheat within nine months as at September 2021. The top sources of wheat to Nigeria in 2021 were USA, N194.2 billion; Canada, N136.4 billion, Russia, N124 billion, Lithuania, N122.3 billion and Latvia, N115.9 billion.
The situation is likely to get dicey if the current disruption in the supply of wheat in the global market goes unabated. Countries like Nigeria stand the risk of experiencing very adverse effect emanating from hike in the cost of wheat which will consequently affect the price of flour, bread and other related food items. This may consequently lead to loss of businesses, as bakeries and other businesses that exist in the chain may go bankrupt and shut down. And of course the chain effect of massive unemployment and other the attendant crimes that accompany it.
This situation is not made any easier with the escalation of energy prices [diesel, aviation fuel, kerosene and gas], mounting petrol import and subsidy bill, which has led to increased cost of transportation and food prices.
The attendant increases in the cost of transportation, food items and other necessities in Nigeria portends a continuous slide in the purchasing power of average Nigerians, which could in turn reverse the movement of Nigeria’s consumer price index. This is coming at a time the world is just recovering from a pandemic that almost crippled the world economy. These spikes in the cost of basic amenities may lead to a spiral inflation in the country and the world at large.
So this debunks most views by some people that the war in Ukraine does not affect Nigeria. In fact, it does, if not directly, it affects us indirectly. Therefore, it is in everyone’s best interest that a quick solution is found to bring the war to an end.