By Our Correspondent
A potential deal between MTN Nigeria and Mafab Communications over a prized 5G spectrum holding is opening a fresh front in Nigeria’s telecoms industry, with experts divided over whether the transaction would accelerate network investment or further concentrate market power in the hands of the country’s biggest operator.
Although the discussions have not resulted in a concluded transaction, any eventual transfer would require regulatory approval and could have far-reaching implications for the structure of competition in Nigeria’s increasingly data-driven telecommunications market, FP reports.
At the centre of the controversy is a 100MHz block of 3.5GHz spectrum acquired by Mafab for $273.6 million during the Nigerian Communications Commission’s 2021 5G auction.
The spectrum was originally intended to broaden access to next-generation mobile technology by bringing more operators into the 5G market.
Four years later, however, the possibility that the asset could move to MTN is forcing the industry to reconsider whether the original competitive objectives of the auction would still be served.
Mafab and MTN each paid $273.6 million for 100MHz blocks after emerging as the winners of the auction, while Airtel was also among the operators that submitted bids.
MTN subsequently paid another $15.9 million at the assignment stage for the 3500–3600MHz block, while Mafab received the 3700–3800MHz block without an additional payment.
A transfer of Mafab’s spectrum to MTN would effectively place additional high-capacity frequencies in the hands of an operator that already has one of the country’s largest subscriber bases and the most extensive network infrastructure.
That combination could offer significant technical advantages to MTN. With more spectrum available, the telecoms giant could potentially increase network capacity, improve data speeds and accommodate rapidly growing traffic without relying solely on additional infrastructure deployment.
The potential benefits could be particularly significant as Nigerian consumers increasingly shift from voice calls and SMS towards data-intensive services such as video streaming, social media, cloud applications, digital payments and online business.
Telecom consultant Ejikeme Onyeaso, however, said the potential transaction presented regulators with a difficult balancing act.
Additional spectrum could enable an established operator to improve service delivery and deploy capacity more efficiently, he noted, but concentrating more spectrum with the dominant player could also alter the competitive position of operators with smaller infrastructure footprints and less financial muscle.
Spectrum is a finite public resource. Unlike towers or fibre infrastructure, it cannot simply be reproduced when demand rises. How its allocation can therefore influence not only network quality but also the ability of operators to compete for customers and investment.
For MTN, additional spectrum could strengthen its ability to respond to the explosive growth in data consumption.
An industry executive familiar with the discussions argued that the combination of Mafab’s spectrum with MTN’s extensive network and tower infrastructure could produce immediate benefits for subscribers.
The additional capacity, the executive said, could help MTN improve coverage and network performance while potentially making the company more attractive to investors.
But the same transaction could increase pressure on rival operators, particularly Airtel and Globacom, if they are unable to secure comparable spectrum resources or make similar investments.
The question becomes even more complicated when Nigeria’s current technology mix is considered.
The NCC’s latest figures show that 5G represented just 4.74 per cent of mobile connections in July 2026, despite rising substantially from 0.12 per cent three years earlier.
By comparison, 4G accounted for 54.31 per cent of connections, confirming that the older technology remains the backbone of Nigeria’s mobile broadband market.
This raises a fundamental question for the industry: Is Nigeria ready to concentrate more 5G spectrum when the majority of consumers are still using 4G?
One industry insider questioned the rationale for MTN acquiring additional 5G capacity without a clearer assessment of how quickly the market can absorb it.
“What does MTN need the 5G spectrum for?” the source asked, pointing to the relatively limited number of consumers currently using 5G-compatible devices.
The issue is not necessarily that additional spectrum is unnecessary. Rather, the concern is whether the investment will produce sufficient economic and consumer benefits to justify further concentration of the scarce resource.
Despite the rapid expansion of mobile data usage, subscribers continue to complain about congestion and inconsistent service quality, particularly on 4G networks.
This creates an unusual situation in which operators are simultaneously being pushed to improve existing networks while investing heavily in next-generation infrastructure.
A major migration of consumers from 4G to 5G could intensify that challenge. If millions of subscribers eventually move to higher-speed networks, data consumption is likely to increase significantly, placing additional demands on spectrum, towers, fibre infrastructure and backhaul capacity.
This means that the MTN-Mafab discussions are not simply about the ownership of a $273.6 million asset. They raise a much broader question about how Nigeria wants its telecommunications market to evolve.
Mafab’s experience also raises questions about the original purpose of the 2021 auction. If an operator that secured spectrum specifically to participate in the 5G market ultimately chooses to transfer the asset to an established competitor, regulators and industry stakeholders may need to examine what prevented the development of a stronger independent 5G business around the licence.
The outcome could also influence how future spectrum auctions are designed, particularly the conditions attached to licences, deployment obligations and possible transfers.