Loyalty, Political Arithmetic, and Continuity Might Have Already Settled the APC’s Biggest Question for 2027
By Felix Olukayode
With less than 24 hours before the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) deadline for political parties to submit the names of their vice-presidential candidates, all indications suggest President Bola Tinubu has decided to retain Vice President Kashim Shettima as his running mate for the 2027 presidential election.
Although the APC had yet to formally confirm the ticket at the time of writing, the absence of any credible sign that Shettima is being replaced has effectively quieted months of intense speculation over his political future. If that expectation proves correct, it will mark one of Tinubu’s most consequential political decisions ahead of his re-election bid.
The fact that the issue dominated political discourse for much of the past year, however, reveals the competing pressures that shaped the President’s calculations.
The Pressure to Change Course
The campaign to replace Shettima was driven by three broad arguments.
The first centred on the unresolved controversy surrounding the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023. Critics argued that the arrangement departed from Nigeria’s long-standing tradition of balancing presidential tickets along religious lines. Some Christian groups, particularly from the North-Central, maintained that the region deserved the vice-presidential slot in recognition of its electoral support for Tinubu in 2023 and the heavy security burden it continues to bear.
A second factor was persistent lobbying by various political interests. Among the names repeatedly mentioned in political circles were former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, former Zamfara State Governor Abdulaziz Yari, and former Speaker of the House of Representatives Yakubu Dogara. Public affairs analyst Dr. Oyedele Oyewumi argued that adopting a more inclusive ticket could strengthen Tinubu’s legacy by demonstrating political accommodation.
Perhaps the strongest criticism came from commentators who warned that repeating the Muslim-Muslim ticket could carry electoral risks. Cleric Primate Elijah Ayodele, for example, described such a move as “political suicide” for the APC. Whether or not that assessment reflected opinion within the party hierarchy, it illustrated how emotionally charged the debate had become.
Why Shettima Appears Set to Stay
Despite those pressures, the political indicators increasingly point in the opposite direction.
The first is loyalty. Since assuming office, Shettima has remained one of the President’s most dependable allies, publicly defending government policies and avoiding the disagreements that have strained relationships between some Nigerian presidents and their deputies in the past. By every public measure, Tinubu appears to value that stability.
The second is political arithmetic. As a former governor of Borno State, Shettima remains one of the APC’s most influential figures in the North-East, a region the party will be keen to retain in 2027. Replacing him at this late stage would risk unsettling an established political structure without any guarantee of delivering greater electoral gains elsewhere.
Equally significant is the absence of any convincing evidence that the President has lost confidence in his deputy. Shettima has continued to represent Tinubu at major national and international engagements, while senior APC figures have consistently dismissed reports of an imminent change. Presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga also emphasised that the party’s candidate would emerge before the running mate was formally named, a procedural explanation that helped fuel speculation but never suggested Shettima had fallen out of favour.
Some analysts also argue that the religious controversy that dominated the 2023 election has gradually lost some of its political potency. They contend that First Lady Oluremi Tinubu’s prominent Christian identity has helped blunt—though not entirely erase—the narrative that the administration represents an attempt to Islamise the country.
Taken together, these developments suggest that continuity has become politically safer than reopening old debates barely months before another national campaign.
What It Means for 2027
Should Tinubu eventually submit Shettima’s name to INEC, the decision would reinforce continuity, reward loyalty, and preserve an existing political coalition. But it would not completely erase the grievances that generated months of calls for a different running mate.
Questions over religious balancing, the aspirations of the North-Central, and the disappointment of those who favoured alternative contenders are likely to remain part of the opposition’s campaign narrative.
That makes the broader electoral contest even more intriguing.
On paper, the combined votes secured by Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso in the 2023 presidential election exceeded Tinubu’s total, even though the APC candidate comfortably met the constitutional requirements to win. The challenge for the opposition has never been arithmetic alone. It has been converting competing ambitions into a united political machine capable of defeating an incumbent president.
For Tinubu, retaining Shettima appears to be a calculated wager that loyalty, stability, and regional political strength outweigh the continuing debate over religious balance. It is a strategy built on preserving an alliance that has already won one election. Whether it proves successful in 2027 may ultimately depend less on the APC’s internal calculations than on whether a fragmented opposition can finally transform its numerical advantage into a credible and united electoral challenge.